Traffic grew thirty percent a quarter and our model said two years of headroom. We ran out in five months. What went wrong?

Where linear models break: compounding growth, step functions, peak days and saturation cliffs. Forecast per constrained resource, backtest, subtract lead time to get the real order-by date.

Updated Sep 2026 · Grounded in researched DevOps, SRE and platform engineering interview loops, written to a senior-engineer editorial bar, and never padded to hit a word count.

Where linear models break: compounding growth, step functions, peak days and saturation cliffs. Forecast per constrained resource, backtest, subtract lead time to get the real order-by date.

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